It’s best to try a lot of quick low-cost options and see what works, rather than try to predict which one will and go all-in.
Trying to predict what the “right” thing to do before you do them is a fool’s errand. The best path is to cast a wide net. Generate a lot of options. Exercise the profitable ones and jettison that which doesn’t work.
The mistake most people make is they try and use their intelligence or knowledge to figure out the “right” thing to do in advance. Instead, you should generate a lot of options (and opportunities) and simply exercise the profitable ones when the conclusion is obvious.
Fail fast. Make a multitude of low-cost mistakes, which known maximum losses and a large potential payoffs. Rely on Empirical evidence to determine what should be further pursued.
Bail on okay options and leave yourself open for those that are truly great and worthwhile (Be Selective). If you commit to a project for five years and refuse to leave it when it goes south, you’re making an expensive mistake.
James Clear
It is much easier to notice when something is working than to predict ahead of time if it will work. Take action, make many small bets, and run lots of quick (but thoughtful) experiments. Then, double-down on the winners.
In Effortless, Gregg McKeowen referred to a similar concept he called ”Learning-sized failures”, and advocated for something akin to a Fail Quota.